The French will vote for their next President in April and May 2017. The first round of the vote will take place on April 23. Then, the two top candidates will face each other in a run-off, on May 7.
After the surprise of Britain’s Brexit referendum and the election of Donald Trump as US president, the lights are on Marine Le Pen and her right-wing program for France. There is a great scaremongering campaign against her, calling her program populist but she is not far from the mindset of Charles De Gaulle. and she is basically a Gaullist and a French nationalist, not a populist.
Who will be the top contenders for the Élysée Palace? The top five candidates are, in alphabetical order: Francois Fillon (Les Republicains), Benoit Hamon (Socialists), Marine Le Pen (Front National), Emmanual Macron (Independent) and Jean-Luc Mélenchon (Unbowed France).
For the first round, there is a consensus that the two final contenders will be Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron.
After the first round, there will be a considerable amount of horse-trading backstage and the winner of the most votes, out of the two, will becomes the President of France. Thus, is out of the question that the opposition, scared by the proposed radical reforms put forward by Le Pen, will concentrate on the independent Emmanuel Macron, who has very high chances of becoming the next President. All the polls seem to agree on it. (1)
But pollsters cannot poll simple people because they will deny their preference (after all voting is personal and secret, why then they should reveal their preferences?). All the media and intellectuals in France are falling into the same trap, believing what they themselves say, as they did with Brexit and Trump. They should dress in a casual way and then go around talking to taxi drivers, waiters, workers outside the factories over a glass of Bordeaux wine. The case of Wilders in Holland cannot be compared to the situation in France and the US, also considering that Wilders’ opponent did a turn to the right just before the election (a joke went around saying that one did not let Turks in, while the other wanted the Turks out. That being their main difference).
But who is Emmanuel Macron after all?
Emmanuel Macron (born 21 December 1977) is a French politician and senior civil servant of strong socialist leaning. A former investment banker, he studied Philosophy at Paris Nanterre University, and later graduated from the prestigious École nationale d’administration (ENA) in 2004.
Macron then become an Inspector of Finances in the Inspectorate General of Finances (IGF) before becoming an investment banker at Rothschild & Cie Banque!
And we all know by now that if you work as an investment banker you have no heart and no soul, you are at best a sort of Judas always ready to pocket the 30 silver denari. I have met several of them during my life but I never found one who could be set as an example.
Then, will be the French people so stupid as to vote a wolf hiding under a lamb skin? I don’t think so!
Macron was a member of the Socialist Party (PS) from 2006 to 2009, deputy secretary-general under François Hollande’s first government in 2012 before being appointed Minister of Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs in 2014 under the Second Valls Government. He then resigned in August 2016 in order to launch a bid in the 2017 presidential election. In November 2016, Macron declared that he was not a Socialist anymore but a “Macronist” and would stand in the election under the banner of ‘En Marche!’ a movement he had founded in April 2016.
For all these reasons I firmly believe that, contrary to opinion polls, Marine Le Pen will win in a massive way the run off against Macron. Then she will take France out of the Euro and ask for radical changes at the EU.
1. See for instance this study by George Elliott Morris, a student of Government, History, and Computer Science at the University of Texas at Austin, which tally most of the other polls. http://www.thecrosstab.com/2017/02/14/france-2017-methodology/